How Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
The president loves to tout his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a resolution.
Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.
The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that ending the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.