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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although analysts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.